Thursday, May 21, 2020
Crime in Urban America Essay - 1051 Words
Crime in Urban America has been around for many years, it is atrocious and there are many reasons why people commit these crimes. Crime is a big issue all around the world and while there is more production of drugs and loss of jobs, the crime rate will continue to increase day by day. While there are many motives that contribute to crime the most obvious causes would be poverty which causes the poor to adapt into a violent and aggressive behavior to which later becomes ingrained into them. The environment where a person grows up in which could consist of gangs that participate in illegal activities. Abuse of drugs or alcohol attribute to crime because people commit abominable crimes while under the influence. The anger that an individualâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦The environment of where a person was raised is another leading cause of crime. When someone grows up in a place where they see all these bad things happening in their society it serves as a role model to them and they adapt other peopleââ¬â¢s actions. Growing up in a household where somebody does not have parents or a guardian telling them what is right from wrong leads you to do the unthinkable because they do not have any family direction showing you the right way to live life.â⬠One of the most important environmental factors during childhood development is that of socialization or the way a child is ââ¬Ëtaughtââ¬â¢ how to actâ⬠(Chemistry Web) Lack of faith causes a person to think of violence as their only way to get attention. When someone has no religious values, they think of all the bad things that are bothering them instead of the good that they can bring into their life. Gangs in an environment are a big cause of bringing crime to a society because they are the people who do the most outrageous crimes. They are the ones who are drug dealers, who bring graffiti into neighborhoods, and who commit drive by shootings. Individuals join these gangs to be accepted, to be hon ored by the people within the gang, and because they may not value themselvesShow MoreRelatedEconomic Development in Urban Areas Essay762 Words à |à 4 PagesEconomic Development in Urban Areas Economic change has helped lead America into urban crisis for the following reasons. First of all, because urban problems are no longer confined to the inner city, but are regional in nature. The federal government has, also, largely drawn from the urban policy arena, thereby having cities and sates to develop their own solutions to local problems. Furthermore, the economy of cities is no longer organized around a central business district, but is dispersedRead MoreThe Flaws of Incarceration in America Essay1366 Words à |à 6 Pagesincarcerated than any other country. America is responsible for a quarter of the worldââ¬â¢s inmates, and its incarceration rate is growing exponentially. The expense generated by these overcrowded prisons cost the country a substantial amount of money every year. While people are incarcerated for a number of reasons, the countryââ¬â¢s prisons are focused on punishment rather than reform, and the result is a misguided system that fails to rehabili tate criminals or discourage crime. The ineffectiveness of the UnitedRead MoreEssay about White Collar Crime vs. Street Crime665 Words à |à 3 PagesWhite Collar Crime vs. Street Crime One problem that plagues our society is crime. Crime is all around us in our everyday lives. Daily we hear of murders, robberies, and rapes. These are categorized as street crimes. For many people, such crimes are the only tragic crimes, the ones that are senseless and preventable. In Finsterbuschs book, Taking Sides, another variety of crime is exposed. 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Residents of poor urban areas face many sets of challenges that our community developers are not addressing that can alleviate issues within urban communities. If we can come together to fight against poverty, we can call for revitalization, we need many more new strategies to tackle problems that arenââ¬â¢t contained. Many authors address poverty within suburbanRead MoreUrban Decline With Middle Class1445 Words à |à 6 PagesIn addition, McDonald (1986) expressed the beginning no tion of gentrification that indicated the urban decline with middle class individuals abruptly and surprisingly moving into neighborhood where crime rates were tremendously high. In the study, time- arrangement information from fourteen gentrified neighborhoods in Boston, New York, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., were broke down to figure out whether gentrification had an impact on wrongdoing rates in focal city neighborhoods. TheRead MoreDo Curfews Effect Teens?951 Words à |à 4 PagesDo Curfews Effect Teens? A lot of teenagers argue that obeying curfews really affects them because they get in troubles. Curfews do not guarantee that teenagers will fully stay out of trouble. Teen curfews do not reduce or take away from juvenile crime (ââ¬Å"Teen Curfews Should Not Be Supported ââ¬Å"). Some teens feel that when a parent sets a curfew, they donââ¬â¢t fully trust their kids all the way. Whether teenagers have a curfew or not, they can get in just as much trouble in the day time as they can getRead MoreHate Crime Essay1096 Words à |à 5 PagesDealing with Hate Crime Dealing with hate crime should be given the highest priority in America. Hate crimes have devastated many families and communities. Hate crimes grooms terrorist in their own country. It plants seeds of hate in the heart of men. Every day, a hate crime happens in public, school, community, and homes all around America. Most hate crimes do not go on report in America because the public does not see it as a hate crime. Traditionally, the FBI only investigated crimes that a perpetratorRead MoreCommunity Gardens And Green Spaces1421 Words à |à 6 Pagesincomes for little to no cost outside of volunteer time. Audience My ideal audience will consist of community leaders, urban planners, neighborhood improvement groups, gardening clubs and the ordinary citizens of the city who are interested in improving their lives, health and neighborhoods. Significance This topic is very significant because over the past several decades, urban and neighborhood planners have strayed away from green spaces throughout their projects. Green spaces encourage interactionRead MoreFactor Affecting the Presence of Crime in Inner Cities of America788 Words à |à 4 PagesThe presence of crime in the inner cities of America is the result of many different factors. 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Monday, May 18, 2020
Report On Financial Modeling And Business Forecasting Finance Essay - Free Essay Example
Sample details Pages: 12 Words: 3529 Downloads: 5 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Argumentative essay Did you like this example? In this FMBF essay, three equity market price indices, including FTSE350, TOPIX and OMX HELSINKI (OMXH), will be studied based on time series. For the accuracy of conclusion, this essay will use last decade data because latest available information and large sample can contribute to the precision of the study. Because the tradeoff between significant ARCH effects with very high order from daily data and low order but less significant ARCH effects due to the monthly data, the frequency of weekly data is more appropriate. Donââ¬â¢t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Report On Financial Modeling And Business Forecasting Finance Essay" essay for you Create order In addition, closing data on Friday can avoid some evitable bias and result in higher reliability of the information. Therefore, the weekly data from Jan 2th 1998 to April 10th 2009 downloaded from DataStream will be used in this report. Instead of themselves, the natural logs of FTSE350, TOPIX and OMX HELSINKI (OMXH) equity market price indices will be used in this essay. This report will first test the unit root of three stock markets use Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test based on perrons testing procedure, and then it will find out the appropriate univariate model for estimating equity market returns of the three. After that, EG approach will used for testing cointegration between three indices. Where after, it will test whether there are the ARCH effects exist in the OMXH index, and re-estimate the appropriate univariate model mentioned above for OMXH index with a GARCH model. And, this report will use the last 15 observations to forecast the conditional mean and the conditio nal variance. Finally, it will critically compare the performance of the forecasts of different GARCH processes (eg, EGARCH, h_t GARCH) under same model. Unit root test Keeping the stationary of variables is an important condition of regression. When the data is not stationary, there is one or some unit roots exist in time series data. The presence of unit root will cause the problem of spurious regression. Usually, people can use one of two methods to test unit roots, either Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test approach (Said and Dickey, 1984), which developed from Dickey-Fuller (DF) approach (Dickey and Fuller, 1979), or Philip-Perron test created by Perron in 1998. The Perrons testing procedure increase restriction step by step, so that eliminate unnecessary parameters like trend and constant (these reductions of parameters will change the critical values of testing and reduce bias) and finally get precise conclusions (Harris and Sollis, 2003). Table 1.Perrons (1988) testing procedure using the DF test (unknown d.g.p.) C:DOCUME~1ADMINI~1LOCALS~1Temp7QWX`ZNVV)$8DZW6Y7_RD{P.jpgSource: Harris and Sollis, 2003 In this essay, it will use ADF test by using Perrons testing procedure to reduce bias. The only different between DF test and ADF test is the regressions of latter one have a new parameterÃâà à ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã
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¾yt-1. Figure1. Perrons Procedure of Unit Root Test C:[emailprotected]]J9K_61XW(E6)S3.jpg Source: Harris and Sollis, 2003 At first step, unit root will be tested based on . This essay will choose the model with appropriate number of lags based on lowest Akaikes Information Criterion (AIC) values for three indices. Then, compare t values of selected model with critical value at 95% significant level. From the results given by Pc Give, the null hypothesis of unit root cannot be rejected, the test process should continue. The appropriate number of lags is 7 for FTSE 350 and OMXH, 2 for TOPIX. Table 2. Step 1 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (1) t-value -1.336 -0.9436 -2.031 (table) 5% critical value -3.42 Accept Accept Accept At second step, this report will do OLS by using regression used in first step of procedure and regression without trend. Based on F statistic value and of two regressions, we can found that the later one is better. All three indices cannot reject null hypothesis and move on to next step. Table 3. Step 2 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (2) F-value 0.26500 0.64474 0.73237 (table) 5% critical value 6.25 Accept Accept Accept (2a) t-value 5% standard normal t critical value 1.96 At the third step, it test unit root with ADF test based on the model without trend. All three indices still cannot reject the null hypothesis. Table 4. Step 3 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (3) t-value -1.400 -1.113 -2.312 (table) 5% critical value -2.86 Accept Accept Accept At the fourth step, we can found that constant is not the necessary part of the model when compare models and. All three indices can accept the null hypothesis and the test process should be continued. Table 5. Step 4 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (4) F-value 1.0622 0.75515 2.6918 (table) 5% critical value 4.59 Accept Accept Accept (4a) t-value 5% standard normal t critical value 1.96 Finally, it tests unit root in the model without constant and trend by using ADF test. From table 2, we can see that all three indices are non-stationary, and there are must be some unit roots in them. Table 6. Step 5 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE350 TOPIX OMXH (4a) t-value 5% standard normal t critical value 1.96 (5) t-value -0.4605 -0.6288 0.06988 (table) 5% critical value -1.94 Accept Accept Accept Univariate model The purpose of this part is to identify an appropriate univariate model to estimate equity market returns in time series. This report will use Box-Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1970) for time series model building. The procedure includes three stages: identification, model estimation and diagnostic checking. The first step is identification: the first order difference of the nature log of PI is market return. Because only stationary data can used in ARMA time series models, before ARMA model estimation, this essay will use ADF test to check the unit roots of market returns. The ACF and PACF diagrams may help to find appropriate ARMA model. The second step is model estimation: we should pick up the most appropriate model from a number of set possible ARMA models estimated by using Pc Give. In this stage, we should compare p-values and choose the model that most coefficients of parameters are significant from zero. The third step is diagnostic checking, it will test the efficiency of ARMA model selected in the second stage. It should test whether both additional lags are significant or not. According to Harris and Sollis (2003), only all additional parameters are insignificant, the original ARMA(p,q) model is efficient. Moreover, the residuals should be white noise for an adequate model. In this report, AIC will be used as one criteria to select appropriate model. 2.1 FTSE350 Identification According to the results of ADF test from Pc Give, market returns of FTSE350 are stationary. The actual series, ACF and PACF diagrams prove the results from ADF test that the FTSE 350 market return has no unit root at all. Table 7. ADF test on market return of FTSE350 index FTSE350 t-value -9.526 5% critical value -3.42 Reject Figure 2. Actual series and ACF, PACF of DLFTSE350 GiveWin Graphics 1.emf Estimation Compared with other models, ARMA (1, 1) seems to be appropriate. Based on p-values, most coefficients are significant. And residuals are white noise. DLFTSE350t=-0.0002577150.913851DLFTSE350t-1+0.854708 Diagnostic Overfitting Information from table indicated that ARMA (1, 1) is the correct one. The additional parameters AR2 and MA2 in ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2) are insignificant. Both ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2) should be rejected. Table 8. Overfitting test on ARMA (1,1) model Model Statistic t-value p-value result ARMA(2,1) AR_2 0.503 0.615 insignificant ARMA(1,2) MA_2 0.503 0.615 Insignificant Residual analysis Under Ljung-Box test statistic (Qk), Chi^2(21) = 28.353 [0.1304] in model ARMA (1, 1) provides evidence that residuals are white noise and independent. Figure 3. Actual series, ACF and PACF of DLFTSE350s residuals Giv eWin Graphicsftse350.emf AIC Value When compared the AIC values of ARMA (1, 1), ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2), we can found that ARMA (1, 1) is the model with lowest AIC value and should be selected. It is consistent with the results above. Table 9. AIC of ARMA (p, q) ARMA(1,1) ARMA(2,1) ARMA(1,2) AIC -4.52046242 -4.5174036 -4.51740249 2.2 TOPIX Identification The results from Pc Give shows that market return series of TOPIX is stationary. Figure 4 provides the actual series, ACF and PACF diagrams from Pc Give. All information is consistent with the idea of no unit-root in TOPIX market return. Table 10. ADF test on market return of TOPIX index TOPIX t-value -16.14 5% critical value -3.42 Reject Figure 4. Actual series and ACF and PACF of DLTOPIX GiveWin Graphics2.emf Estimation We can found that ARMA (1, 1) is the best one in ARMA models. Most of coefficients of parameters in ARMA (1, 1) are significant from zero based on P values. DLTOPIXt=-0.000570574-0.530279 DLTOPIXt-1+0.448276 Diagnostic Overfitting The p-values of both additional parameters AR_2 and MA_2 are greater than 0.05, it means that the coefficients of AR_2 and MA_2 are not significant at 95% significant level. So we should reject ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2) in favor of ARMA (1, 1). Table 11. Overfitting test on ARMA (1,1) model Model Statistic t-value p-value result ARMA(2,1) AR_2 1.05 0.296 insignificant ARMA(1,2) MA_2 -0.00 1.000 insignificant Residual analysis From Portmanteau(23): Chi^2(21)= 21.585 [0.4238] in ARMA (1, 1) model, we can find that there is no serial correlation between residuals and they are white noise. None of bar chart i n ACF or PACF exceeds standard error bounds. Figure 5. Actual series, ACF, PACF of DLTOPIXs residuals GiveWin Graphicstopix.emf AIC value The result of AIC is same as the outcome mentined above. Based o AIC, we can found that ARMA (1, 1) is the best model with lowest AIC value. Table 12. AIC of ARMA (p, q) ARMA(1,1) ARMA(2,1) ARMA(1,2) AIC -4.24323212 -4.24138739 4.23974138 2.3OMXH (OMX HELSINKI) Identification Market return of OMXH is stationary from ADF test. And the figure 6 shows the actual series, ACF and PACF of DLOMXH by using Pc Give. It provide positive evidence that there is no unit root in DLOMXH (market return) Table 13. ADF test on market return of OMXH index OMXH t-value -7.920 5% critical value -3.42 Reject Figure 6. Actual series, ACF, PACF of DLOMXHs residuals GiveWin Graphics3.emf Estimation Based on results from Pc Give, we can found that the most appropriate model is ARMA (2, 2) for OMX HELSINKI (OMXH). Most coefficients of parameters are significant from zero at 95% significant level with evidence that most P values of them are less than 0.05. DLOMXHt=0.000804126+1.52249DLOMXHt-1-0.662672DLOMXHt-2-1.53479 +0.708503 Diagnostic Overfitting Looking at p-values, we can found that ARMA (3, 2) and ARMA (2, 3) should be rejected because the coefficients of additional parameters AR_3 and MA_3 are both insignificant from zero. Table 14. Overfitting test on ARMA (2,2) model Model Statistic t-value p-value result ARMA(3,2) AR_3 0.932 0.352 insignificant ARMA(2,3) MA_3 0.604 0.546 insignificant Residual analysis We can see that Portmanteau (23): Chi^2(19) = 28.866 [0.0681]. When translating numerical result to written words, it means residuals are not serial correlated and close to white noise. ACF and PACF are within two standard error bounds. Figure 7.Actual series, ACF, PACF of DLMOXHs residuals GiveWin Graphicsresidualomxh.emf AIC value Under the method that chooses the model with lowest AIC value, still ARMA (2, 2) should be the best model. Table 16. AIC of ARMA (p, q) ARMA(2,2) ARMA(3,2) ARMA(2,3) AIC -3.34659081 -3.33848893 -3.34351931 Cointegration 3.1Key steps in EG approach There are two common methodologies on cointegration test: Engle-Granger approach and Johansen approach. EG approach can but can only adopted in single equation with two variables, and Johansen approach is used in multivariate system. In this report, it will pursue EG approach. Firstly, it will outline the procedure of EG approach. And then, it will test the cointegration between each two indices. In theory, C:DOCUME~1ADMINI~1LOCALS~1TempKXB{][emailà protected]/* */)W.jpgis the only static model that necessary to be estimated to exam the long-run relationship between Yt and Xt. Before do the cointegration test, the order of integration of each other index should be test. If all data are belong to I(0), there will no cointegtaion between them; if variables are belong to I(1), it estimate the model mentioned above by using OLS regression. In the second step, it will test unit roots in the residuals with ADF test. When there is no cointegration between two variables, residual is belongs to I(1). If the residuals is belongs to I(0), it means that cointegration relationship exist in that single equation. What is important here is the critical values used by ADF are calculated by MacKinnon (1991). Critical value can be calculated by following the model C:DOCUME~1ADMINI~1LOCALS~1Temp641N%ER][emailà protected]/* */[DB.jpg. It can get the appropriate critical value for test including residuals from OLS equation if the number of regressors (constant and trend are not included) from 1 to 6. If the cointegration existed in long-run relationship between two variables, we should estimate the simple dynamic model of short-run adjustments. In this report, it will use equilibrium correlation model (ECM) of dynamic model. In this step, the speed of adjustment for regression will be obtained. (Harris and Sollis, 2003) Test for integration of each two indices Three indices are all integrated of order 1, or we can call I (1), because the natural logs of them are not stationary and the first order difference of the natural logs of them are stationary. 3.2FTSE350 and TOPIX Firstly, it regress LFTSE350 on LTOPIX and a constant by using OLS regression. Then, save the cointegration regression residual in database as residual1. After that, test residual1 with ADF. We can see that the number of regressors is 1 (excluding constant). We choose model based on the idea of the lowest AIC value. From the table of ADF test, residual 1 is stationary and thus variables are cointegrated. Also, figure 8 from Pc Give shows persistent but stationary residuals. In short, these two indices are cointegrated. Constant and no trend, n=1 C(p)=-2.8621-2.738/563-8.36/563^2= = -2.86699 Table 16. ADF test on residual 1 Residual 1 t-value -3.181 5% critical value -2.86699 Reject Figure 8. Residuals from Cointegration regression between FTSE350 and TOPIX GiveWin GraphicsEG1.emf ECM The coefficient of residual provides information on the speed of adjustment. The number 0.0448954, which is significant from zero, means the adjustment for the regression. (See Appendix) 3.3TOPIX and OMXH Regress LTOPIX on LOMXH and a constant by using OLS. Then, save the cointegration regression residual in database as residual2. After that, use ADF to test residual. The number of regressors is 1 (excluding constant). We choose model based on the idea of the lowest AIC value and the t-value is-2.622. We found out that -2.86699 is less -2.622, the residual2 is non-stationary and two indices are not cointegrated. In addition, from graph, the residual2 provides clear information about stationary or non-stationary of data. In conclusion, there is no cointegration between TOPIX and OMXH. Constant and no trend, n=1 C(p)=-2.8621-2.738/563-8.36/563^2= = -2.86699 Table 17. ADF test on residual 2 Residual 2 t-value -2.622 5% critical value -2.86699 Accept Figure 9. Residuals from Cointegration regression between TOPIX and OMXH GiveWin GraphicsEG2.emf 3.4FTSE350 and OMXH Regress LFTSE on LOMXH and a constant by using OLS. Then, save the cointegration regression residual in database as residual3. After that, use ADF to test residual3. The number of regressors is 1 (excluding constant). From table of ADF test on residual 3, two indices are not cointegraed because the residual3 is non-stationary. From figure 10, it does not provide strong evidence for stationary. So, these two indices are not cointegrated. Constant and no trend, n=1 C(p)=-2.8621-2.738/563-8.36/563^2= = -2.86699 Table 18. ADF test on residual 3 Residual 3 t-value -2.278 5% critical value -2.86699 Accept Figure 10. Residuals from Cointegration regression between FTSE350 and OMXH GiveWin GraphicsEG3.emf ARCH and GARCH 4.1 ARCH effect and ARCH model This report will only discuss the OMXH stock market index in this section. Due to the limitation of Pc Give, it cannot deal with ARMA model of DLOMXH directly, but change it to AR model at first. Compared with other AR models, the AR (7) model is the best. DLOMXHt=0.000839271-0.00444882DLOMXHt-1+0.0369747DLOMXHt-2+ 0.0307856DLOMXHt-3+0.0258150DLOMXHt-4+0.141961DLOMXHt-5 +0.0693818 DLOMXHt-6 -0.0841123 DLOMXHt-7 Under Ljung-Box test statistic (Qk), Portmanteau (23): Chi^2(16)=15.328 [0.5007] in AR (7) indicates that residuals are independent and white noise. The ACF and PACF support the above result. None of bar chart is passing beyond the significant lines. Figure 11. ACF, PACF of AR (7) model on DLOMXH GiveWin Graphicsomxh ar.emf Before the formal test on ARCH effects in residuals of DLOMXH, the ACF and PACF graphs of squared residuals of DLOMXH provide evidences that ARCH effects exist in DLOMXH residuals. Figure 12. Squared residuals actual series, ACF and PACF GiveWin Graphicsomxh42.emf After the informal test of ARCH effects in residuals of DLOMXH based on ACF and PACF, it will test ARCH effects more academic. This report use Pc Give to test ARCH effect in lower order and higher order, and the results point out that there are ARCH effects in lower and higher order. ARCH 1-1 test: F(1,566) = 12.071 [0.0006]** ARCH 1-6 test: F(6,556) = 4.8959 [0.0001]** After ARCH effect test, the report tries to estimate an appropriate ARCH model. In this stage, it selects Volatility Models and chooses 7 as the lags of length. From ARCH1 to ARCH8, we can found that the Chi^2 becomes to be better and better, while the p-value of parameters are becomes to be worse and worse. None of the ARCH model can fit the data well. 4.2GARCH Model According to Brooks (2008), GARCH models can overcome some problems faced in the process of using ARCH models. GARCH (p, q) model with p and q values can fit the data better than ARCH (m) model with a high m value. It still uses Volatility Model with 7 lags as ARCH model used. At first, it gets the numerical information of GARCH (1, 1) model, GARCH (2, 1) model and GARCH (1, 2) from Volatility package of Pc Give. When checking the F distribution values and Chi^2 values of three models, it can found that all are acceptable (values are significant from zero). Unfortunately, there are some data missing related to parameters in all three models. So, it cannot compare p values of parameters to choose best model. Instead, it will use information includes results of ARCH tests, Portmanteau statistic of squared scaled residuals, log-likelihood and AIC values to find a better one. Table19.Compareable information of GARCH(p, q) GARCH(1,1) GARCH(2,1) GARCH(1,2) AIC -3.599 89604 -3.60415615 -3.59636247 log-likelihood 1029.77058 1031.97619 1029.77058 Portmanteau(23): Chi^2(21)=16.696 [0.7293] Chi^2(20)=14.329 [0.8135] Chi^2(20)= 16.696 [0.6726] ARCH 1-2 test: F(2,551)=0.10648 [0.8990] F(3,548)=0.075153 [0.9734] F(3,548) = 0.15031 [0.9295] Compared with other GARCH models, we can find that GARCH (2, 1) model is better; even neither model can fit data very well. GARCH (2, 1) is the model with lowest AIC value. The highest log-likelihood value in this model indicates that it can fit data best in the three. All of three Chi^2 are significant from zero, which means there are no relationships between residuals and they are white noise. The numbers in brackets are p values of Chi^2. The higher the value the greater evidence of white noise of squared scaled residuals. The ARCH effect test F distribution values are related to whether there are ARCH effects in squared scaled residuals. Similar with the Portmanteau sta tistic, a higher number in bracket means greater support of none ARCH effects in squared scaled residuals. 4.3Forecast with GARCH Models In this section, the last 15 observations will used to forecast the conditional mean and variances. SD (Standard Derivation Error) RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will adopted to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting based on different GARCH models. A model with better data fitting is always has lower SD (Error). A low MSE indicates a better fit of GARCH model on time series data. MAPE is another indicator of accuracy on data fitting of GARCH model. When the value decreases, the model can fit the data better. In addition, the model with lower MAPE can predict the trend of data. The power to measure the data fitting of models is increasing from SD (Error), RMSE to MAPE. EGARCH (2, 1), GJR GARCH (2, 1) and H_TGARCH (2, 1) models were established to evaluate the efficiency of GARCH (2, 1). All can pass the processes of ARCH effect tests and white noise tests. Because GARCH model used to measure volatility of data, the ability of forecasting on co nditional mean is limited, and the key capability is volatility measurement. All models are doing badly in conditional mean forecasting: the predict graph can provide very limited information about conditional means that all are close to zero in the forecasting period and. When compared with forecasting capability, we can see that GJR GARCH (2, 1) is the model with lowest MAPE and second small RMSE. It indicates that GJR GARCH (2, 1) has strongest power for forecast. Table 20. RMSE and MAPE SD (Error) RMSE MAPE GARCH(2,1) 0.055276 0.055772 91.742 EGARCH(2,1) 0.055429 0.055814 91.422 GJR GARCH(2,1) 0.055220 0.055645 90.988 H_TGARACH(2,1) 0.055236 0.055396 94.793 Figure 13. GARCH(2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance THGARCH(2,1).emf Figure 14. EGARCH(2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance EGARCH(2,1).emf Figure 15. GJR GARCH(2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance th2,1.emf Fig ure 16. h_tGARCH (2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance GARCH(2,1)FORECAST.emf Reference Brooks, C., 2008. Introductory Econometrics for Finance. 2th edition. Cambridge. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74:427-431. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Jouranl of Econometrica 49:1057-1072. Harris, R. and Sollis, R., 2003. Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting, John Wiley Sons, New York. MacKinnon, J., 1991. Critical values for co-integration tests, in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger. Long-Run Economic Relationships: 267-276, Oxford University Press, Oxford ,UK. Perron, P., 1988. Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time seriesÃâà ¼Ãâ¦Ã ¡Further evidence from a new approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Contro 12:297-332. Said, S.E. and Dickey D.A., 1984. Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknow n order. Biometrika 71: 599-607.
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
Abortion A Controversial Issue - 911 Words
Abortion is a controversial issue in many countries all the time and there are always two sides of abortion. Pro-life supporters believe that abortion is immoral, so they argue that it should be illegal because an unborn baby is life. However, they do not figure out that woman who is on the inevitable situation such as infection, rape, or extreme poverty would still have the abortion even though the abortion is illegal. Many women die due to unsafe abortion, which is illegal and performed by uneducated people. Therefore, the abortion should be legal to protect the life of ââ¬Ëalive womenââ¬â¢ because womenââ¬â¢s life is equal to humanââ¬â¢s right. I would like to provide more affirmative bases to support abortion in this paper. Women have right to control their own bodies and decisions. As human free will, women can determine their decision for their future. It is sometimes inevitable to maintain their lifestyle that they have before they become pregnant. Although pregna nt is the responsibility of both, woman and man, as a result of having sex, women should give up their career or study because pregnancy and childbirth are not as easy at all as just people generally think. Furthermore, women who have the abortion are in difficult condition, which is the unwanted. The Guttmacher institute research said that unintended or unplanned pregnancies were 41 percent of national pregnancies (Abortion Worldwide: A Decade of Uneven Progress). This high rate is from the unavoidable inability ofShow MoreRelatedThe Controversial Issue Of Abortion878 Words à |à 4 Pagesrecent discussions of abortion, the controversial issue has become whether or not women should be given the right to take their unborn childââ¬â¢s life away. Many believe in all having the right to live while others believe in the right to be given a choice. Women do not want to be given restrictions, they want to be able to have a voice when making decisions. With abortion women have a hard t ime making their decision based upon the judgement others make if the decision of abortion is followed throughRead MoreAbortion : A Controversial Issue1256 Words à |à 6 PagesAbortion is a very controversial issue. To first start out abortion is the deliberate termination of a womanââ¬â¢s pregnancy, most often performed within the first 22 weeks of pregnancy. People can either be pro-choice or pro-life for abortion. Being pro-choice means that people believe that it is a womanââ¬â¢s choice to get an abortion if they want one. Pro-life means people believe no matter what if a woman is pregnant they should have the baby; no abortion. I intent to explain why women who get pregnantRead MoreAbortion : A Controversial Issue Of Abortion Essay2668 Words à |à 11 PagesAbortion is terminating a pregnancy before the fetus has been born. Abortion has been and still is very controversial and has had an increasing amount of cases all over the world. In 2000 there were over one million abortions in the United States (Harper, et al., 501). Abortion is one of the most common procedures women undergo. According to the current abortion rates about thirty percent of women will have an abortion by the age of forty-five (Jones and Kavanaugh, 2011). Most abortions are attributedRead MoreThe Controversial Issue Of Abortion1555 Words à |à 7 Pagestopic of abortion in the United States has been and remains one of the most controversial issues in western culture and politics. An abortion can be defined as the expulsion of a fetus from the uterus before it can survive on its own. This comprises two major forms of abortion: spontaneous, which is often referred to as a miscarriage or induced abortion, which is the deliberate termination of a pregnancy. The term is commonly used to refer to the induced abortion, and this is the abortion, which hasRead MoreThe Controversial Issue Of Abortion865 Words à |à 4 Pages Today, people have the right to voice their thoughts regarding a topic, rather theyââ¬â¢re different or alike, creating a new philosophy about it, or supporting the traditional belief. In regards to the topic, Abortion has been a subject of controversial matters. Some believing they have the right to do such an act while others would absolutely disagree. Before supporting such an act or not, we typically take into consideration the goods and bads of the action first. While taking a life might be oneRead MoreAbortion : A Controversial Issue843 Words à |à 4 PagesAbortion Abortion has been a very controversial issue in the United States for the past several decades. Many people think that is it morally wrong. To say that something is morally wrong is an opinion. Since everyoneââ¬â¢s opinions are different on this topic there have been many court cases and protests against abortion. However there are a lot of people out there that believe that abortion is a rightful decision. My personal opinion on the abortion controversy is that every woman should have theRead MoreAbortion : A Controversial Issue989 Words à |à 4 Pagesaverage total of abortions performed annually in America (operationrescue.org). Abortion is a very controversial issue in the United States and all across the globe. First, I will discuss the different types of abortion. Next, I will explain when the abortions are performed. Then, I will share some of the laws regarding abortion in the United States. Finally, I will express my views on abortion. Abortion should be illegal in all states. First, I will discuss the various types of abortion. There are threeRead MoreAbortion: a Controversial Issue1159 Words à |à 5 PagesAbortion: A Controversial Issue One of the major controversial issues confronting the society today is abortion. I choose abortion as the topic of discussion since it contradicts my values and beliefs. Abortion is the extraction of the human fetus from the mothers womb with an intention to end the life of that fetus prior to its natural birth. The controversy surrounding abortion is whether it should be legalized or not? In my opinion, abortion is morally and ethically wrong because it leadsRead MoreAbortion : A Controversial Issue882 Words à |à 4 Pagesconsider abortion as a rightful act, and abortion is a name of destroying human life. Now a days our society faces several types of issues Abortion is one of the complicated issue for both ways health and society thatââ¬â¢s why abortion become a very controversial issue thatââ¬â¢s become debatable in politics. In addition, these researches will describe the different issues of abortion, such as, legal laws on abortion, restriction of abortions, rate of ab ortion and consequences of the abortion. Abortion isRead MoreThe Controversial Issue Of Abortions1443 Words à |à 6 Pageslooking at them. This includes their reproductive system, which worldwide has caused many controversial issues that will be further looked upon throughout this paper. When the word ââ¬Å"Abortionâ⬠is heard, a heated argument often arises between couples, families, governments, and most commonly throughout womenââ¬â¢s minds around the world. Over the past hundred years, the topic of abortions has been an ongoing issue. Many people agree to this practice, while others see it as completely absurd. In the past
Essay about The Odyssey - 924 Words
The life of a God, forever bliss, complete happiness: Odysseus slights all of these things in order for him to return to his loving wife and son. The concept of true commitment was a very commendable quality for a Greek hero to possess. With this character trait, Odysseus models the ideal husband, father, and leader. Unfortunately, in todayââ¬â¢s society, one rarely encounters such outstanding morality. Being raised in an explicit society, a decrease in certain morals has become fashionable. In particular, the college experience has become accepted as the ââ¬Å"wild timesâ⬠of oneââ¬â¢s life. Certain activities ordinarily shunned are now perceived as a learning experience when involving a college student. Drugs and alcohol abuse are commonplace aroundâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦But let him have no company, gods or men, Only a raft that he must lash together, And after twenty days, worn out at sea, He shall make land upon the garden aisle. (263) This edict of Zeus summarizes the journey Odysseus makes in order to return home. He endures dire hardships to make the journey home, yet he still chooses to continue forward. Although Odysseus accepts this hardship as a mere speed bump, many people today would not prevail through such adversity. A knack for finding the easy way out has seemed to blossom as the one uniform skill possessed by most young people today. With todayââ¬â¢s technology, a person rarely spends an afternoon by himself, and if so, would not like it. With this in mind, choosing to continue on with the journey in present times would be much harder of a decision to make than in ancient times. Another problem around school campuses is the growing rate of alcohol and drug abuse amongst students. Extreme marijuana usage has taken claim to many victims. The drug may not kill the person using it, but it does kill motivation. The drug becomes a part of the userââ¬â¢s life, and the user will eventually become lethargic. This lethargy continues to increase until most productive activities are eliminated. Although Odysseusââ¬â¢s crew did not have marijuana on their ship, his crew did encounter a drug that posed a similar threat. Odysseus explains the drug, ââ¬Å"but those who ate this honeyed plant, the Lotus,/ never cared to report,Show MoreRelatedThe Odyssey739 Words à |à 3 PagesIn Greek Mythology, women were either very fierce or very weak. Women were usually defined by wits, beauty, or bad deeds. In The Odyssey women were not in the background. On the contrary, women were powerful. They charmed and controlled men, provided wisdom, and took care of them. The Odyssey appears to be strongly female based. Penelope is the wife of Odysseus who is the king of Ithaca. When Odysseus is called off to the Trojan War Penelope shows great faithfulness and wit. She stays faithfulRead MoreThe Odyssey1243 Words à |à 5 PagesThe Odyssey In Homerââ¬â¢s epic, The Odyssey, each culture treats strangers and guests with distinct differences from every other culture. One of the most hospitable cultures was that of the ancient Greeks, exemplified in Homer s The Odyssey by both gracious hosts and guests. In Greece and The Odyssey, not only was good hospitality etiquette expected, but the added pressure that if they didnââ¬â¢t treat their guests with respect the gods would punish them further compelled excellent manners. The OdysseyRead MoreThe Odyssey1315 Words à |à 6 PagesThe Odyssey has captured minds for over 2700 years, and the story of Odysseus shows his determination to fight and conquer obstacles with and without the help of the Gods. The story dates back before 1000B.c. (The Modern Library, 1950, p.VI) His creative and cunning tactics throughout the story show his determination to reach his homeland of Ithaca. After conquering the Trojan War, Odysseus was told by Poseidon ââ¬Å"man is nothing without the godsâ⬠. Poseidon felt Odysseus was not thankful for Poseidonââ¬â¢sRead MoreThe Odyssey By Homer s Odyssey Essay1314 Words à |à 6 Pages8th century, The Odyssey, is Homer s epic of Odysseus 10-year struggle to return home after the Trojan War. Odysseus defining character traits, such as nobility, courage, thirst for the glory and the appealing confidence in his authority dominated the storyline throughout. The many themes of this epic mainly focus around the Greek hero Odysseus however in my essay I will attempt to analyze hospitality. Hospitality shaped an important part of social interactions in The Odyssey. Although Greek societyRead MoreOdyssey Death and Rebirth in the Odyssey1402 Words à |à 6 PagesThe Odyssey, by Homer, is a classical piece of Greek literature. Throughout The Odyssey, the Blind Bard makes use of many literary techniques in order to lend meaning to the poem beyond its existence as a work of historic fiction and aid his readers in the comprehension of the tale. One of these techniques is the use of motifs. A motif is a recurring theme that is used throughout the work. In The Odyssey, Homer makes use of many motifs including eating/drinking, Odysseus sRead MoreThe Odyssey1006 Words à |à 5 PagesThe Odyssey, one of the most well known epic stories Introduces Odysseus, the King of Ithaca. This story demonstrates Odysseusââ¬â¢s physical and intellectual strength. Striving to return home after 20 years of his treacherous journey, he uses strength, skill, and superior ability to overcome his troubles. Although he faced numerous obstacles and fought many battles, he made it appoint to get home to his kingdom through his physical ability, intellectual insight, and overcoming his epic flaw. InRead MoreThe Odyssey By Homer s Odyssey1267 Words à |à 6 PagesLife in The Odyssey In The Odyssey, Odysseus is constantly being challenged. He is being challenged, so Homer can show us the standards for life in The Odyssey. There is no doubt that Odysseus is a great man, Homer even says so in the beginning lines of the text. Although Odysseus is a great man, he also makes mistakes but not any that he doesn t pay for. We learn the representation of life in The Odyssey through Odysseus challenges. Throughout the book, Odysseus specifically struggles with arroganceRead MoreThe Odyssey By Homer s Odyssey848 Words à |à 4 Pagesin their way. This is not a new thought; however, even the Greeks before Christ felt this way. In Homerââ¬â¢s Odyssey, many of the characters express the troubles that the gods have caused them, and the gods argue the exact opposite. The gods claim, ââ¬Å"Mortals! They are always blaming the gods for their troubles when their own witlessness causes them more than they were destined for.â⬠The Odyssey demonstrates that humans and not the gods are responsible for their own strife. Odysseus exemplifies how menRead MoreHomer s Odyssey : The Odyssey1236 Words à |à 5 Pagesextend his journey in The Odyssey by several years. Homer constructs Odysseus by attributing both godly and human characteristics to him, allowing readers to admire him while simultaneously relating to him. The combination of these revered traits coined Odysseus as being an omnicompetent man, polumetis, in the eyes of the Mycenaeanââ¬â¢s and in the eyes of most modern day readers. This shows that the popularity of Odysseus transcends time; however, modern interpretations of The Odyssey in cinematic productionsRead MoreThe Odyssey By Homer s Odyssey1667 Words à |à 7 Pages During, Homerââ¬â¢s, The Odyssey many strengths were tested throughout the entire book. This book was a mythological Greek folk tale that was created between the eleventh and eighth century B.C, therefore it is filled with many exaggerated stories about the Gods and treacherous adventures Odysseus had ventured on. H e encounters a cyclops and after battles a six-headed monster. His crew discovers their talent for making mistakes such as being turned into pigs by Circe and letting strong winds out of
A visual interpretation of the text of ââ¬Ësir gawain and the green knightââ¬â¢ Free Essays
I wrote the above illustration of text from Sir Gawain and the Green night in the way it is shown here to illustrate that in the first to the fourth lines there is a certain level of revelry and the fete in the text. The first to the fourth lines talk about partying and having fun hence my visual representation of the feeling that these lines conveyed.à Immediately on the fifth and sixth line, I notice a change in tone from the party atmosphere to the more toned down chivalrous tone. We will write a custom essay sample on A visual interpretation of the text of ââ¬Ësir gawain and the green knightââ¬â¢ or any similar topic only for you Order Now Despite the mention of humor and merrymaking in the firth and sixth lines, the presence of ââ¬ËGawainââ¬â¢ and the ââ¬Ëknightââ¬â¢ in these two lines give them a sense of conservativeness and tradition, so I used a more formal, less ââ¬Ënoisyââ¬â¢ illustration of the text.à Finally, in the seventh and eighth lines the tone tapers off with the mention of ââ¬Ëseparationââ¬â¢ and the reference to sleeping.à So, from the party atmosphere that I illustrated in the initial lines, the tone of the text moves on to become more muted, and finally to taper off to nothing as everybody takes their leave. In this exercise I realized that there are certain emotions conveyed by the text in ââ¬ËSir Gawain and the Green Knightââ¬â¢.à I believe that this is a quality of many pieces of poetry called imagery ââ¬â this means that a visual image is conveyed by the text with the use of words. These images come from certain clues in the text that represent an emotion by encapsulating this emotion in a concrete image.à For instance, when a poet wants to convey joy, the poet would use words that would indicate that there is a party, as is the case in the first six lines.à From this exercise I learned to appreciate the value of the specificity of words in poetry ââ¬â for a poet to convey an accurate emotion, the words used have to be very specific. This means that if the poet would like to convey ââ¬Ëangerââ¬â¢ he/she cannot simply write ââ¬Ëangerââ¬â¢ but categorize the intensity of that anger as well and find the word that best fits the degree of anger that needs to be expressed. In particular, this exercise also makes me realize that literature is not unintentional; all that a writer puts into his work is considered very carefully if not planned to the finest detail.à This is so because one thing that a writer should achieve in his work is to rig it in a way that the audience is led to feel the exact emotion that needs to be conveyed in the words. The same function of words could be used for many other purposes in literature such as revealing something or indicating a change in tone or atmosphere as is illustrated in the above example. However way words are used in literature, the writer should be conscious of what he/she is doing at all times otherwise; the images that a poem or a piece of literature conveys would be faulty or inaccurate.à I believe this particular quality of literature is called organic unity. The flow of any piece of literature is largely dependent on the proper arrangement and use of the words.à This means that for a writer to succeed in a particular piece of literature he/she has to be able to wield the ability or power of words to cause mental images to form in the readerââ¬â¢s mind. How to cite A visual interpretation of the text of ââ¬Ësir gawain and the green knightââ¬â¢, Papers
Implications of Genetically Modified Organism â⬠MyAssignmenthelp.com
Question: Discuss about the Implications of Genetically Modified Organism. Answer: Genetically modified organisms have advantages over its disadvantages because GM crops have insects or pests repelling quality which causes less use of dangerous and harmful pesticides and chemicals on food. Genetically modified crops have the ability to resist extreme and severe fluctuations in weather. So, a good and sufficient yield of crops can be grown in worse conditions of weather. GMO favors greater production of crops because genetically modified crops are very easy to grow, as its have the ability to repel the pests. This feature helps farmers to produce large amount of crops.(Amofah, 2014) Another advantage of GMO is that genetically modified animals and crops generally needs less time and chemicals to grow, which reduces environmental harms such as emission of greenhouse gas, soil erosion etc. With genetically modified organisms, deforestation can be reduced too. GMO was discovered with the help of genetic engineering thats why it make sure that the crops or animals will never be damaged in a fast rate. GMO provides considerable protection for crops and animals. According to Food and Agricultural organization of United Nation, The food produced by GM engineering has more nutritional values which can help to reduce the deficiency of nutrients like vitamins and minerals in food. Few more advantages are reduction in food price due to higher yield, development of new products, new crops etc.(Qiu, 2013) As explained there are many advantages of GMO over its disadvantages, So researchers should do more research on the products made from GMO and should find out how the disadvantages could be changed in advantages, as it is a useful procedure for the population. References Amofah, G. (2014). Recommendations from a Meeting on Health Implications of Genetically Modified Organism (GMO).Ghana Medical Journal, 48(2), p.117. Qiu, J. (2013). Genetically modified crops pass benefits to weeds.Nature.
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